The following rules for eclipses are copied from
Duffett-Smith ([1988], which is copied
from "The Cambridge Encyclopaedia of Astronomy" by S. Mitton (Editor)):
A lunar eclipse can only occur at full moon and a solar
eclipse
at new
moon. There is not an eclipse every month.
At least two solar eclipse occur every year, and never more than
five.
There are at least two
lunar eclipses every year and a maximum of five lunar
eclipses in a year (three mentioned by Duffett, but perhaps he means
only total lunar eclipses).
The lowest number of eclipses is four per year and the highest
total
number of eclipses in a year, lunar plus solar, is seven.
Eclipses tend to go in pairs of threes: solar-lunar-solar. A
lunar
eclipse
is always preceded or followed by a solar eclipse (two weeks in between
them).
The pattern of eclipses tend to recur in cycles of 18 years 11
days and
8 hours, the so-called Saros cycle.
The pattern is not repeated exactly and here are more patterns. More on
periodicy see below.
At the moment of greatest
eclipse the sun and moon are either in
opposition
or conjunction. If the angle between the line of nodes and the sun or
the
moon is greater than 12°15' a total eclipse is not possible, while
if it is less than 9°30' a lunar eclipse must occur (lunar eclipse
limit). If the angle is
more than 18°31' a solar eclipse cannot happen, while if it is less
than 15°31' a solar eclipse must occur (solar eclipse limit).
Two times
the angle 18°31' constitute the eclipse
season.
In a lunar eclipse, the total phase can last for a maximum of 1
hour 40
minutes, and the umbral phase, partial-total-partial, for a maximum
time
of 3 hours 40 minutes. The maximum time of a solar eclipse (at the
equator)
is 7 minutes 40 seconds and an annular eclipse can last at most for 12
minutes and 24 seconds.
With an annular eclipse (where moon disc is a little smaller than
sun
disk)
does not have a corona visible: like the annular eclipse of May
10th, 1994.
Because of the above uniformity of solar eclipses over the year,
the number of visible solar eclipses around summer will be larger then
around winter, because the days are longer in summer.
Because of the above uniformity of lunar eclipses over the year,
the number of visible lunar eclipses around winter will be larger then
around summer, because the nights are longer in winter
At the peak of the lunar
perturbation (every 173.31 Days), which happens when the Sun is
inline with the lunar
nodes (Ls1 of 0° or
180°) the possibility of an eclipse exists at new or
full Moon. This is not specifically related to lunar standstill events.
Near
the periods of major/minor lunar
standstill
limit events we have the minimum amount
of solar/lunar eclipses per appr. half year (2 =1 + 1 instead of the
average 2.4),
but this does not
distinguish these event periods significantly from many other
comparable periods with 2 eclipses (some 47%).
The main reasons for these 2 eclipses per period (~91 days before and
after the limit) are:
when the Sun is at its vernal or autumnal point (at equinoxes)
and inline with the lunar nodes, this configuration defines the moments
of max. lunar declination.
and if the new or full Moon is at its two lunar nodes, eclipses
can
happen
around major/minor standstill limit events the eclipses happen
in the middle of the eclipse season (31 to 38 days).
one eclipses at each lunar node/equinoxal point happens.
Yearly solar eclipse occurance periodicy
by using
Fourier transform (a low pass
filter can be used on the occurance data to remove the spurious
noise peaks,
but that will not remove the major ones).
The solar eclipse
periodicy. See the two peaks around 17.4 (close to Saros)
&19.0 (Meton)
years and half of these two periods (9.3 years), which looks to be associated with major/minor lunar standstill
events.
(using Eclipse
predictions by Fred Espenak and Jean Meeus [NASA's GSFC])
Yearly lunar eclipse occurance periodicy by using Fourier
transform (a low
pass
filter can be used on the occurance data to remove the spurious
noise peaks,
but that will not remove the major ones).
The lunar eclipse
periodicy. The two peaks around Saros&Meton
years are not really visible (resolution of the Fourier analysis is
lower then for the above solar eclipses), but half
of these two periods (9.3 years) is visible, which looks to be associated with major/minor lunar standstill
events.
(using Eclipse
predictions by Fred Espenak and Jean Meeus [NASA's GSFC])
Work is done on mapping the caculated/found periodicy; like ~2.2
[3*Tzolk'in?], ~3.6 [5*Tzolk'in?],
~5.9, ~140 [Tritrix?] and ~580 [Tetradia]
years on overviews
of known eclipse periods. Interestingly most of these major peaks
don't map on mentioned/known periods!
I know the Tzolk'in is very discussable, I just tried to find a period
that
migth fit, and Tzolk'in seems to be a relation with predicting
eclipses in the Maya trandition.
The 9.3 periodicy has also its harmonics as smaller peaks at 4.6,
3.1
en 2.3 year. So these are related to Lunar nodal cycle (18.6 years).
The harmonics 5.9 and 2.9-3.0 years might be another series, but
this is not an integer number of synodic months!
The 580, 293 and 140 years migth be another series.
It would be nice to be able to name the above periodicies, but
even
better to understand the astronomical reasons. The 9.3, 18 and 19 years
cycles are easy to understand astronomically, but what about the other
periodicies? Let me
know. There must be an astronomical reason otherwise they
would not pop up in the Fourier transform.
In the above graph the 580 year
periodicy is easily spotted. (using Eclipse
predictions by Fred Espenak and Jean Meeus [NASA's GSFC])
Shorter (smaller then 2 years) periodicies are investigated on this web page.
Eclipses are concentrated around
the equinoxes near the epochs when the Moon reaches its major/minor
standstill limits, because at those times the nodes of the lunar orbit
are
close to the equinoxes, and eclipses can only occur near these nodes.
In the year of the actual major/minor standstill limit, this is also
close to
the quarter-ish moon that will have the major/minor declination. Around major standstill event (pers. comm.
Meeus [2008]):
lunar 2006, March 14
solar 2006, March 29
lunar 2006, Sept. 7
solar 2006, Sept. 22
lunar 2007, March 3
solar 2007, March 19
and around minor standstill event:
solar 2015, March 20
lunar 2015, April 4
solar 2015, Sept. 13
lunar 2015, Sept. 28
solar 2016, March 9
lunar 2016, March 23
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank the following people for their help and
constructive
feedback: Jo Coffey, Ed Krupp, Raoul Martens, Jean Meeus
and Doug
Scott and all other unmentioned
people.
Any remaining errors in methodology or results are my responsibility of
course!!! If you want to provide constructive feedback, let me
know.
Other links to eclipse information: